Prediction markets

How are prediction markets used today and where are they going in the future? A special lecture by Robin Hanson.

When we think of trading, we think of trading physical goods or simple services. Prediction markets are different: they allow trading 'bets on future outcomes'. For example, if the price of a stock drops by 10%, I owe you CHF 100. By linking a prediction to a financial stake, participants are arguably more honest instead of just signaling their values to their peers. This is why companies such as Google, Microsoft, and HP use prediction markets for statistical forecasts. With the rise of Blockchain technology completely decentralized prediction markets become possible, extending the access and the type tradable events well beyond the stock market. So, how are prediction markets used today and where are they going in the future?

These are the questions that Robin Hanson, professor of economics at George Mason University, will give his view on in this 45 minute talk. He started the first known corporate prediction market and invented the scoring rules used by modern prediction markets. On the side he serves as an advisor to augur.net, one of the first blockchain-based prediction markets. And last but not least, he proposed a political system known as futarchy, where citizens vote on values but bet on beliefs/policies.

For further information refer to the event page https://www.facebook.com/events/531043140580211/